DANGOTE REFINERY YET TO CURB NIGERIA’S 15BN-LITRE PETROL IMPORTS
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Notwithstanding enhanced refining capacity, Nigeria imported 69 percent of the 21 billion liters of gasoline it utilized between August 2024 and the initial ten days of October 2025, as reported by the NMDPRA, according to the media.
Nigeria received approximately 15.01 billion liters of Premium Motor Spirit (gasoline) from abroad during the mentioned timeframe, accounting for almost 69 percent of the nation’s total gasoline provision over the 15-month span. This occurred despite the commencement of gasoline production at the Dangote refinery in September 2024.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicates that the overall PMS supply for the period was 21.68 billion liters, with 6.67 billion liters, or 31 percent, derived from domestic refining. The report, titled Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025), documented supply trends over the course of 15 months, underscoring the gradual increase in local production and a corresponding decrease in imports.
According to the details, imported gasoline averaged 44.60 million liters daily in August 2024 and escalated to 54.30 million liters per day in September 2024, reaching the highest level of import reliance during that timeframe. This coincided with the period when the Dangote refinery began supplying PMS to the domestic market.
It was observed that imports began to decline consistently, reducing to 24.15 million liters per day by January 2025, 19.26 million liters daily in September 2025, and 15.11 million liters per day within the first 10 days of October 2025.
The reduction in gasoline imports indicated that the Dangote refinery is progressively capturing a substantial portion of the market; however, this is occurring in a competitive landscape, with petrol importers continuously accusing Aliko Dangote of undermining rivals through persistent price reductions.
As domestic refining increased steadily throughout the period, local production, which was at 6.43 million liters daily in September 2024, rose to 22.66 million liters daily in January 2025 before stabilizing around 20 million liters per day in the following months. By October 2025, the Dangote refinery was generating an average of 18.93 million liters per day, surpassing imports for that month.
The data also exhibited significant supply fluctuations month-to-month, with total daily PMS supply peaking at 60.73 million liters in September 2024, before declining to 44.08 million liters in April 2025 and further to 34.04 million liters by October 2025. These variations reflected changes in both import availability and refinery performance.
This suggests a significant reduction in daily consumption, dropping from an average of 60.73 million liters per day in September 2024 to 51.57 million liters in July 2025, 41.86 million in August, 34.86 million in September, and 34.04 million per day during the initial 10 days of October 2025.
It is noteworthy that the Federal Government wholly deregulated the petrol sector in September of the previous year, terminating the contentious fuel subsidies that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited had been providing on imported gasoline.
A month-by-month examination indicated that the peak domestic production occurred in January 2025, with a daily average of 22.66 million liters, while the lowest output transpired in August 2024, when no local production was reported as Dangote had not yet initiated operations at that point.
The highest overall supply was recorded in September 2024 at 60.73 million liters per day, followed by October and November 2024, when the total daily supply averaged 56.01 and 55.75 million liters, respectively. By the conclusion of the assessment period, cumulative petrol imports reached 15,009.85 million liters, while domestic output totaled 6,672.44 million liters, resulting in a combined supply of 21,682.29 million liters over the 445 days between August 2024 and October 1-10, 2025.
These statistics highlight the ongoing evolution in Nigeria’s petrol supply framework, reflecting a gradual yet significant increase in the role of domestic refining. Nonetheless, the data also confirmed that imports remained predominant in the national supply composition for the majority of the time.
It is noteworthy that while marketers advocated for imports, the Dangote refinery has been supplying petrol to other nations, including the United States. The 650,000 barrel-per-day refinery has consistently asserted its capability to fulfill local fuel requirements while exporting to international markets.
Aliko Dangote envisioned the construction of the refinery as a means to eliminate Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, despite the country’s status as an oil producer. However, marketers have continued to import petrol into Nigeria, creating fierce competition with the refinery.
Recently, the Dangote refinery challenged marketers to present their trucks for fuel loading, claiming that it possesses over 310 million liters of petrol available. The Vice President of the Dangote Group, Devakumar Edwin, announced that marketers were permitted to bring any trucks for loading at the gantry, stating that the refinery had sufficient fuel for both the domestic market and exportation.
“I currently have more than 310 million liters of PMS in my tanks, in addition to the ongoing daily production. Bring your tankers; we will load. No matter how many tankers you bring, we will load. This is a challenge I am issuing today. No one can claim that I am not loading. We can accommodate any number of tankers you provide. Thus, you can determine whether I possess the capacity to produce or not. As of now, we have more than 310 million liters,” he emphasized.
In September, the Dangote refinery exported a greater volume of fuel to foreign countries as Saudi Aramco and other refineries in the Middle East Gulf shut down for maintenance.
A senior official at the Dangote refinery informed our correspondent, on the condition of anonymity due to restrictions on discussing matters with the media, that the $20 billion Lekki-based facility exported significant quantities of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), aviation fuel, and diesel to various nations in August.
“We export PMS, diesel, and aviation fuel,” stated the official.
Our journalist has reported that the Dangote refinery provided two long-range shipments of fuel to the Mideast Gulf region during the period from June to July. As per Argus Media, a significant refinery maintenance season in the Mideast Gulf is anticipated to intensify an already constrained gasoline market in the fourth quarter, leading critical regional suppliers to enhance imports.
In February, the Dangote refinery announced it had delivered two shipments of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco. Aliko Dangote revealed that the refinery accomplished an important milestone by successfully exporting the two shipments of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.
Dangote stated that the refinery was achieving the ambitious targets it had established as it increases production.
“We are meeting the ambitious targets we set for ourselves, and I am pleased to report that we have recently sold two shipments of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco,” he declared in February, adding that since its production commenced in 2024, the refinery has consistently raised its output.
Several months ago, he revealed that the oil refinery had started exporting PMS to various countries worldwide. According to him, between June and July 2025, the refinery exported nearly one million tonnes of petrol.
“Today, Nigeria has truly become a net exporter of refined products. From the beginning of June to the present date (July 22), we have exported approximately one million tonnes of PMS within the last 50 days,” he remarked.
The NMDPRA also confirmed that the Dangote refinery contributes an average of 20 million litres of petrol to the local market.
“Undoubtedly, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has transformed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres, certainly with the potential for future expansion,” stated NMDPRA Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, recently in Lagos.
The data highlights Nigeria’s continuing transition from a heavy dependence on imported petrol to a more balanced supply framework driven by domestic refining. While the country still relies significantly on foreign fuel, the consistent growth in local production, particularly from the Dangote refinery, indicates a gradual movement towards self-sufficiency.
Nevertheless, the rivalry between importers and the refinery, along with pricing challenges in the market, suggests that achieving complete local dominance will require time. With refining capacity expanding and consumption patterns evolving, Nigeria seems to be entering a new era in its downstream petroleum sector, characterized by increased domestic output, reduced imports, and the potential to finally eliminate decades of fuel dependence.
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