PRESIDENCY DISPUTES WORLD BANK REPORT ON RISING POVERTY

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The Presidency has contested the recent economic assessment released by Nigeria’s largest multilateral lender, the World Bank, which estimated that 139 million citizens were experiencing poverty, labeling this figure as “implausible” and disconnected from the nation’s economic conditions.

President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, articulated in a message on his official X account on Wednesday that the poverty statistics must be “adequately contextualized” within the parameters of global poverty measurement frameworks.

“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and acknowledges its contributions to policy analysis, the figure presented must be appropriately contextualized. It is implausible,” Dare stated.

The Presidency clarified that the 139 million figure was sourced from the global poverty threshold of $2.15 per person per day, established in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity, and should not be interpreted as an actual census of impoverished Nigerians.

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It highlighted that when adjusted to current nominal terms, the $2.15 standard amounts to approximately N100,000 per month at prevailing exchange rates, which is significantly above Nigeria’s newly instituted minimum wage of N70,000.

“There must be caution against perceiving the World Bank’s figures as an exact, real-time census. The estimate originates from the global poverty threshold of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark established in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If transformed into nominal terms, that figure equates to around $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rates, considerably exceeding Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, this measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income conditions.

“Poverty evaluation under PPP methodology utilizes historical consumption data (Nigeria’s last significant survey was conducted in 2018/19) and frequently disregards the informal and subsistence economies that support millions of households. Therefore, the government regards the figure as a modeled global estimate, rather than an empirical depiction of circumstances in 2025. What is genuinely significant is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s current path is one of recovery and inclusive reform,” the statement continued.

According to the former minister, poverty estimates utilizing the PPP methodology depend on historical consumption data, often neglecting the extensive informal and subsistence economies that bolster millions of Nigerian households. Consequently, the government views the World Bank’s estimate as “a modeled global projection, not an empirical representation of living conditions in 2025. ”

He emphasized that what is truly pivotal is not the static figure but the direction of change. It was noted that Nigeria’s economy is presently on a recovery and reform trajectory, propelled by policies aimed at ensuring inclusive growth and social protection.

Furthermore, it was highlighted that the current administration has broadened various welfare and intervention programs designed to mitigate the repercussions of recent reforms while establishing the foundations for long-term prosperity.

Among the principal initiatives emphasized by Dare are, “Conditional Cash Transfers: Expanded to encompass up to 15 million households nationwide, with verified digital enrollment through the National Social Register. Over N297 billion has been allocated since 2023 to impoverished and vulnerable families. Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme: A significant new initiative targeting all 8,809 electoral wards, providing micro-infrastructure, livelihoods, and social services directly at the community level.

“National Social Investment Programmes: Enhanced components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to safeguard jobs, stimulate small enterprises, and ensure children remain in school. Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidized grains and fertilizers, mechanization partnerships, and the revitalization of strategic food reserves to mitigate inflationary pressures on staples.

“Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing essential energy, road, and housing projects to reduce living costs and stimulate local employment. National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding affordable credit to small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs through risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial banks. ”

The Presidency asserted that the Tinubu administration is addressing Nigeria’s poverty challenge by tackling the structural distortions that have hindered productivity and inclusive growth for decades.

It cited ongoing reforms such as the elimination of fuel subsidies, the unification of exchange rates, and the reallocation of fiscal resources towards productive sectors, characterizing them as “difficult yet essential decisions” to address the root causes of poverty rather than merely its symptoms.

“Even the World Bank itself has recognized that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” the statement continued, referencing recent comments from World Bank officials acknowledging indications of economic recovery under the Tinubu administration.

The government underscored that economic recovery alone is insufficient unless it translates into actual welfare benefits for ordinary Nigerians.

According to the statement, the administration’s medium-term objective is to ensure that macroeconomic stability results in affordable food, quality employment, and dependable infrastructure.

Investments are being increased in agriculture, manufacturing, and energy reliability, including new gas-to-power initiatives and skill development hubs anticipated to enhance job creation and diminish living costs.

“Nigerians should start to observe more tangible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature,” the statement noted.

The Presidency further added that the administration is fortifying its social protection framework by integrating all welfare programmes under a cohesive, data-driven system to improve transparency and accountability.

This integration encompasses the expansion of the National Social Register and the scaling up of existing NSIP schemes, ensuring that “no vulnerable community is left behind. ”

The Presidency concluded by reaffirming President Tinubu’s dedication to establishing “a resilient and inclusive economy” where growth directly enhances living standards.

“Nigeria rejects inflated statistical interpretations disconnected from local realities. The government remains committed to empowering households, broadening opportunities, and laying the groundwork for a more equitable and prosperous nation,” the statement finished.

Earlier on Wednesday, the global lender expressed its concern that despite Nigeria’s recent economic stabilization efforts, approximately 139 million Nigerians now live in poverty, warning that the nation risks forfeiting hard-won reform advancements if policies are not transformed into tangible enhancements in citizens’ welfare.
The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, revealed this during the inauguration of the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled, “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home. ”

In his address, Verghis praised Nigeria’s courageous reforms in the exchange rate and petroleum subsidy frameworks, characterizing them as “fundamental” measures that could alter the nation’s long-term economic trajectory.

“Over the past two years, Nigeria has commendably enacted significant reforms, particularly concerning the exchange rate and petrol subsidy. These serve as the groundwork upon which the country has the potential to develop a program capable of transforming its economic pathway,” he stated.

He compared the current reform opportunity to the significant policy changes observed in nations like India in the early 1990s, emphasizing that such rare chances must be seized assertively or risk being missed.

He noted that the reforms are already producing outcomes; economic growth is accelerating, revenues have increased, debt metrics are improving, the foreign exchange market is stabilizing, reserves are rising, and inflation is gradually subsiding.

“These outcomes are precisely what is expected in a stabilization phase. These are considerable achievements, and many nations would aspire to attain them,” he remarked.

However, the World Bank leader cautioned that these macroeconomic advancements have not yet translated into enhanced living standards for the average Nigerian.

“Despite these stabilization benefits, many households are still grappling with diminished purchasing power. Poverty, which began to escalate in 2019 due to policy errors and external shocks such as COVID-19, has further increased even after the reforms. In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty,” he disclosed.

The newly reported figure indicates a significant rise from the 129 million recorded in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023, reflecting the escalating difficulties faced by households despite ongoing economic reforms.

Mixed reactions

Although the Presidency has challenged this figure, Nigeria’s opposition parties, economists, and labor leaders have alternately condemned and praised President Bola Tinubu’s administration, asserting that the deepening adversity nationwide illustrates that its much-publicized economic reforms have yet to yield tangible relief for the average citizen.

The Labour Party’s Interim National Publicity Secretary, Tony Akeni, remarked that the figures reflect the harsh realities of life in the nation.

“While the President speaks of growth and reduced inflation, these are merely statistical figures. They haven’t translated into any benefits for the ordinary Nigerian,” Akeni stated.

He urged the government to ensure that its economic reforms begin to produce concrete results, adding that the ongoing decline of the naira has driven many into extreme poverty.

“In some areas, individuals earn perhaps a dollar or two per day. It’s astonishing,” he expressed.

Likewise, the spokesperson for the New Nigeria People’s Party, Ladipo Johnson, accused the government of exacerbating Nigeria’s debt predicament and failing to mitigate the repercussions of its policies.

“The President continues to propose new loans even after surpassing budget targets. These contradictions point to greater risks for Nigeria,” Johnson asserted, warning that the poverty rate could further increase by the year’s end.
He encouraged civic organizations and opposition factions to demand accountability from the government, stating, “If civic society and political parties do not unite to examine this administration, it will drive the nation toward disaster. ”

The Deputy National Youth Leader of the Peoples Democratic Party, Timothy Osadolor, charged the government with misleading Nigerians regarding its accomplishments.

“We do not require the World Bank or the United Nations to inform us of the prevailing hunger within the nation. The evidence is etched on the faces of Nigerians across the country,” Osadolor conveyed to the media.

He urged the President to utilize the remaining period of his administration to restore public trust.

“Nigerians are succumbing to destitution. If the President cannot relinquish his position, he should at the very least strive to preserve his legacy before being evaluated by history. ”

In a similar vein, Bola Abdullahi, the National Publicity Secretary of the African Democratic Congress, asserted that the government’s assertions of advancement were “insignificant. ”

“The Gross Domestic Product metrics hold no value as they fail to represent the realities of everyday Nigerians. We are pleased that the World Bank has acknowledged this; perhaps the government will heed the counsel of its allies if it remains indifferent to our voices,” he remarked.

Chris Onyeka, the Assistant General Secretary of the Nigeria Labour Congress, stated that employees do not require World Bank or International Monetary Fund data to comprehend the severity of poverty in Nigeria.

“We are aware of the reality. Millions are fighting to satisfy fundamental necessities,” he noted, emphasizing that inflation, a depreciated naira, and escalating food and housing costs have diminished the worth of the N70,000 minimum wage.

He expressed concern that the wage, equivalent to approximately $46 monthly, “barely encompasses the expense of a bag of rice. ”

Onyeka further asserted that the daily realities faced by workers illustrate that “poverty is not merely a numerical representation; it is a tangible experience,” calling on the government to prioritize welfare and labor rights.

Economists contend that the initiatives aimed at rectifying Nigeria’s economy have, in the short term, exacerbated poverty levels as a result of inflation and regulatory shocks.

Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, indicated that there is a delay between reforms and their beneficial effects.

“The endeavor to rectify what is malfunctioning has intensified poverty,” he articulated, clarifying that the unification of exchange rates and the removal of fuel subsidies have led to inflation spikes and diminished purchasing power.

Yusuf added that although macroeconomic stability is on the rise, the forthcoming phase must concentrate on alleviating living costs through targeted interventions in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy.

“There is a pressing need for distinct policies now to directly address welfare,” he emphasized.

Former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Prof. Akpan Ekpo, remarked that mere growth cannot lead to poverty alleviation without intentional policies.

“You cannot achieve a growth rate of four percent and anticipate a decline in poverty levels. Growth must be exponential and sustained over years, akin to China’s trajectory,” he stated.

He urged the government to prioritize investment in human capital and skill development rather than depending on temporary solutions.

“Cash transfers will not eradicate poverty; intentional governmental policy will,” he asserted.

However, former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Okechukwu Unegbu, suggested that the Bretton Woods institutions frequently exaggerate Africa’s challenges.

“I do not fully endorse everything the World Bank claims, yet it is indisputable that poverty is ubiquitous,” he noted. “The crucial question is whether the government is genuinely committed to addressing it.”

Teslim Shitta-Bey, Chief Economist at Proshare Nigeria, characterized Tinubu’s reforms as essential but indicated that their negative repercussions on the impoverished population need to be addressed.
“Currency rate consolidation and the elimination of subsidies were unavoidable, yet the current challenge lies in guaranteeing that the benefits are accessible to everyday Nigerians,” he communicated to the media.

He articulated that the economy is trending towards growth, with GDP projected to hit 4.4 percent by the end of the year, but emphasized the necessity for enhanced electricity provision and digital competencies training to enable citizens to capitalize on worldwide opportunities.

“The global landscape favors diverse revenue sources; Nigeria must equip its populace to earn on an international scale,” he stated.