CBN FORECASTS $18.81BN SURPLUS IN NIGERIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT FOR 2026
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By: Fasasi Hammad
CBN PROJECTS NIGERIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS TO HIT $18.81BN IN 2026
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the country’s current account balance will rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion in 2025, according to the bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook. This represents 11.16% of GDP, compared with 10.94% in 2025.
The report highlights that increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are expected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion. Meanwhile, the International Investment Position (IIP) is projected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion as attractive yields continue to drive capital inflows.
Reforms in the foreign exchange market are anticipated to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are expected to rise to $51.04 billion.
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GLOBAL GROWTH SLOWS AS INFLATION MODERATES, CBN REPORTS
Global economic growth is projected to ease to 3.20 per cent in 2025, slightly below the 3.30 per cent recorded in 2024, weighed down by lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.
However, global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, supported by lower energy prices and the continued normalisation of supply chains.
In Nigeria, inflationary pressures eased over most of 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation, which stood at 24.48 per cent in January 2025, is estimated to have averaged 21.26 per cent for the year, reflecting the lagged impact of a tight monetary policy stance, improved fiscal-monetary coordination, exchange rate stability, and base effects.
CBN FORECASTS INFLATION DECLINE TO 12.94% IN 2026 AMID POTENTIAL RISKS
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that headline inflation will moderate to an estimated average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by declining food prices and lower Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) costs.
However, the apex bank cautioned that the domestic economic outlook remains susceptible to several risks.
“Unanticipated headwinds may upend the expected deceleration in inflation. Projections could be derailed if fiscal expenditure rises disproportionately above the benchmark or if sudden deterioration in global financial markets triggers capital reversals, potentially rekindling exchange rate volatility,” the CBN stated.
The bank also noted that Nigeria’s growth prospects could be adversely affected if an unlikely reversal of the projected disinflation forces monetary tightening.
CBN WARNS OF RISKS TO GROWTH, HIGHLIGHTS NON-OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has flagged several risks that could affect the country’s economic outlook in 2026.
“Unfavourable climatic conditions and potential disruptions to crude oil production could dampen projected output growth, impair budget implementation, and weaken overall macroeconomic performance,” the bank said.
It also noted that unanticipated headwinds, including ongoing geopolitical tensions and a possible re-escalation of protectionist trade policies, could adversely affect the trade balance and exchange rate stability.
On the non-oil sector, the CBN expects exports of agricultural commodities and fertilisers to continue growing, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s export value chain.
“The recently launched National Export Trading Company, designed to address persistent gaps in the export value chain, and the National Intellectual Property Policy, aimed at boosting creative exports, are expected to further buoy non-oil receipts,” the apex bank added.
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