NESG: NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC REFORMS WILL BE PUT TO THE TEST DURING 2027 ELECTIONS
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By: Fasasi Hammad
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that the 2027 general elections could pose the greatest challenge yet to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, highlighting the risk of policy reversals and reform fatigue as political activities intensify.
Speaking at the launch of the NESG 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, Chief Economist Dr. Omishakin said countries that achieve early gains after stabilization often lose momentum during election periods due to weakened discipline and inconsistent policies.
“Election cycles are usually the most difficult moments for reforms,” Omishakin said. “Once immediate crises pass, governments tend to relax. As elections approach, policies become inconsistent, and gains may be reversed.”
He stressed that Nigeria is currently in a critical consolidation phase following reforms implemented between 2023 and 2025, making 2026 pivotal for locking in progress ahead of the 2027 polls.
“We are no longer in crisis, which is precisely why this moment is risky,” he said. “If we are distracted by short-term political considerations, the reforms we have achieved may not be sustained.”
Omishakin noted that Nigeria’s real GDP growth of 3.8% remains below the 5.5–6% needed for meaningful transformation, warning that failure to deepen reforms could revert growth to the 2–3% range seen in previous years.
“Our 2026 growth projection is 5.5%, but it is conditional,” he said. “Sustaining reforms through the political cycle is crucial. Without discipline, the economy could slide backward.”
He highlighted the need for macroeconomic discipline, targeting single-digit inflation, stable exchange rates, and foreign reserves of around $50 billion.
“Single-digit inflation is not just a statistic,” Omishakin said. “It signals durable consolidation and a transition from crisis management to long-term stability.”
On the sectoral front, he warned that underperformance in agriculture and manufacturing—currently growing at about 2% and 1.5% respectively—could undermine reform outcomes if not addressed urgently.
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“The period between stabilization and elections represents a ‘critical window’,” he added. “Reforms must be institutionalized to withstand political pressures. 2026 is the year to deepen, not slow, reforms.”
NESG Chairman Mr. Niyi Yusuf urged policymakers to resist short-term populist measures as political activities escalate.
“Stabilization is only the first step,” Yusuf said. “The real work is consolidation, which must continue even as we approach the 2027 elections.”
Both speakers called on the private sector to remain engaged and hold government accountable, while urging development partners to continue supporting Nigeria’s reform agenda.
Omishakin concluded: “The true test of reform is not during crisis—it is during elections. How we manage the 2027 cycle will determine whether these reforms endure or unravel.”
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