NIMET PREDICTS PROLONGED RAINY SEASON IN 13 STATES, WARNS OF DRY SPELLS, INTENSE AUGUST BREAK IN 2026
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By Aishat Momoh. O.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected a longer-than-normal rainy season in at least 13 states across the country in 2026, alongside early rainfall onset in several regions and severe dry spells in others.
The forecast was disclosed on Tuesday in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo, during the public presentation of the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP).
According to NiMet, states expected to experience an extended rainy season include Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba.
The agency also projected an early onset of rainfall in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. However, a late onset of rains is expected in Borno State.
NiMet further revealed that rainfall cessation would be earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States, while a delayed end of the rainy season is anticipated in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States.
Parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season, although a normal annual rainfall amount is projected for most parts of the country when compared to long-term averages
In terms of rainfall intensity, the agency forecast above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Conversely, below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.
NiMet also warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun States during the March-to-May period, with moderate dry spells expected over Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kogi and Kwara States.
During the June–July–August season, a severe dry spell lasting up to 21 days is predicted in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.
The agency also forecast a severe and prolonged Little Dry Season (August Break), expected to commence in late July, particularly in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States. NiMet noted that the number of days with little or no rainfall during this period could range between 28 and 40 days, while a moderate August Break effect is anticipated in Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.
On temperature outlook, NiMet predicted that both daytime and nighttime temperatures would be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of Nigeria in January, February, March, and May.
The agency cautioned Nigerians against misinterpreting early rains in some southern states as the official start of the rainy season.
“Those engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities are advised to rely on the predicted onset dates in the Seasonal Climate Prediction publication or consult NiMet for proper guidance,” the agency advised.
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