EXECUTIVE DIRECTIVES AND THEIR IMPACT ON OIL SECTOR STABILITY

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By: Fasasi Hammad

The recent presidential directive issued by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has sparked an important national conversation on transparency, reform, and constitutional balance in Nigeria’s petroleum sector. The order, titled “Presidential Executive Order to Safeguard Federation Oil and Gas Reserves and Provide Regulatory Clarity, 2026,” aims to strengthen remittance procedures for oil revenues, a move intended to plug fiscal leakages in a sector that remains central to public finance.

Oil continues to account for roughly 70% of government revenue and more than 80% of export earnings, with national production hovering around 1.3–1.5 million barrels per day. Any policy affecting this sector directly impacts the country’s fiscal stability.

Transparency has long been a concern, with billions of dollars historically lost through opaque deductions, disputed subsidy claims, and accounting gaps. Improving remittance discipline could significantly increase funds available for federal, state, and local governments. Even a modest five per cent gain in collection efficiency could yield hundreds of billions of naira annually, making the reform fiscally sound and necessary.

However, context is crucial. The National Assembly took nearly two decades of deliberations, consultations, and revisions to pass the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021, reflecting the sector’s complexity and the need to balance regional equity, investor confidence, host-community rights, sustainable investment, and regulatory clarity. The extended legislative process conferred legitimacy on the law and underscored that petroleum governance in Nigeria depends on consensus, not haste.

This history helps explain the concerns expressed by labour groups such as NUPENG and PENGASSAN, which have called for clarification on the scope and implications of the executive order. Their worry is that sudden structural changes could destabilize a sector responsible for roughly half of government revenues and a significant share of national employment. They argue that stability and predictability are essential for an industry reliant on long-term capital investment.

Questions have also emerged regarding the operational framework of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), whose commercial and financial operations are defined under the current statute. Constitutionally, executive orders are valid administrative tools but are intended to implement existing laws, not replace legislative processes.

We urge the President, who also serves as Petroleum Resources Minister, to engage with industry stakeholders while implementing this well-intentioned policy. Enhancing transparency is vital, but it must be balanced with stability to maintain investor confidence and avoid disruptions that could harm the economy. Adequate funding must also remain available for frontier exploration to ensure continued growth and energy security.

Ultimately, further dialogue and trust-building between the government, industry, and labour groups will be critical to ensuring the directive strengthens the sector without unintended consequences.

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