2023 ELECTION FRAUD NOT ONE-SIDED, LP STRONGHOLDS RECORDED HIGHEST IRREGULARITIES – STUDY
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By Aishat Momoh. O.
A statistical analysis of Nigeria’s 2023 general elections has found that electoral irregularities were not limited to any single political party, with strongholds of the Labour Party (LP) recording the highest concentration of anomalies.
The study, conducted as part of a master’s thesis in Data Science at Pan-Atlantic University, analysed results from 123,918 polling units across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Using advanced statistical tools, including Random Forest classifiers, the researcher identified 4,351 polling units about 3.5 per cent of those analysed as anomalous.
President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the election with 8,794,726 votes, followed by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 6,984,520 votes, while Peter Obi of the Labour Party polled 6,101,533 votes.
According to the analysis, while the proportion of flagged polling units may appear small, the clustering of irregularities in strategic regions could be decisive in tightly contested elections.
The study noted that electoral manipulation during the 2023 polls was unevenly distributed, tending to occur in regions where political dominance reduced scrutiny. It added that the analysis focused only on uploaded result sheets, pointing out discrepancies between some uploaded figures and the final numbers announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
One of the most striking findings cited was Rivers State, which the Labour Party reportedly won based on uploaded results but was ultimately declared in favour of the APC in the final tally.
Contrary to popular perceptions, the report said the Labour Party recorded the highest concentration of statistical red flags in its strongholds. It identified 2,328 instances of “perfect scores” results clustering around suspiciously round figures such as 50.00 per cent or 75.00 per cent within LP-dominated areas.
Despite securing just 29.1 per cent of the national vote, the LP accounted for a disproportionately high share of these anomalies, the study found.
The researcher argued that this complicates the prevailing narrative that electoral fraud in 2023 was centrally orchestrated by the ruling party alone, suggesting instead that multiple political actors manipulated results where opportunities existed.
“The southeastern concentration suggests that the very regions crying loudest about being cheated may themselves have been sites of significant irregularities,” the report stated, while clarifying that Peter Obi remained genuinely popular in the South-East.
According to the study, it was Obi’s overwhelming popularity in the region that may have provided cover for manipulation, noting that fraud is more difficult to execute in closely contested areas.
The research concluded that Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election was neither catastrophically fraudulent nor fully free and fair, describing it as a reflection of evolving tactics in electoral malpractice.
“Crude ballot stuffing appears to be declining, replaced by subtler manipulation of vote distributions,” the study observed, adding that modern fraudsters now report more “plausible” figures that are harder to challenge but still fraudulent.
The researcher recommended independent audits of election data, mandatory real-time transmission of results, unbundling INEC’s responsibilities, stronger in-house technical capacity, and the visible prosecution of electoral offenders to strengthen future elections.
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