INSECURITY LOOMS OVER 2027 ELECTIONS AMID 5,272 DEATHS IN FIVE MONTHS
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By: Tajudeen Aminat
Between January and May 2026 alone, at least 5,272 Nigerians were killed in violence-related incidents, according to media reports, underscoring the country’s deepening security crisis.
A 15th Report on Violence in Nigeria published by Nigeria Watch and compiled by Dr. Vitus Nwankwo Ukoji, with support from Dr. Abiola Victoria Ayodokun, revealed that 222,137 people were killed in 46,182 violent incidents across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory between 2006 and 2025.
Against this backdrop, the 2026 figures have heightened concerns among the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), human rights activists, and legal experts, who warn that the 2027 general elections scheduled for January 16 and February 6 could be held under an intense security threat.
Persistent violence driven by terrorism, banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes—particularly in the North-East, North-West, and North-Central, with increasing spillover into the South-West—has continued to fuel anxiety across the country.
As preparations for the 2027 elections gather momentum, stakeholders including INEC leadership, security agencies, civil society groups, and political actors increasingly agree that electoral processes and national security are inseparable issues.
INEC Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, described them as “two sides of the same coin of national stability,” stressing the need for coordinated action.
However, opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have cautioned against any attempt to postpone the polls, arguing that doing so would amount to surrendering democratic space to violent groups.
Amupitan, speaking during engagements with the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, called for stronger collaboration between INEC and security agencies ahead of the elections. He warned that electoral malpractice, vote buying, and violence could undermine public confidence and threaten national stability.
He stressed the importance of proactive security planning, including early risk assessments to identify hotspots and deploy preventive measures rather than reacting after violence occurs.
According to him, the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) remains central to election security coordination and must transition from reactive responses to intelligence-led prevention.
The police leadership assured INEC of its readiness to secure the electoral process, promising impartiality and adherence to constitutional provisions. Inspector-General Disu disclosed that strategic threat assessments and nationwide intelligence mapping had already commenced to identify potential flashpoints.
He highlighted concerns including political violence, illegal arms proliferation, voter intimidation, cyber manipulation, misinformation, and attacks on electoral infrastructure, noting that preventive policing strategies would be prioritised.
Days later, speaking at the 2nd Annual Lecture of the Alumni Association of the National Institute for Security Studies (AANISS), Amupitan warned that Nigeria was entering a “critical phase” of electoral risk.
He described the upcoming elections as not only political milestones but also “security triggers,” citing emerging threats such as social media volatility, artificial intelligence-driven disinformation, and foreign information manipulation, alongside insurgency and communal conflict.
“Without a secure environment, the sovereign will of the people is not just threatened; it is silenced,” he warned.
Legal practitioner and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, also raised concerns, questioning whether the country was truly prepared for elections under current security conditions. Speaking at a June 12 memorial lecture in Abuja, he cited rising cases of kidnapping, terrorism, and violent crime.
Falana warned that no credible electoral process could take place while insecurity persists, stressing that the government must demonstrate genuine capacity to protect citizens ahead of 2027.
Human rights advocate and CDHR President, Debo Adeniran, noted that insecurity could significantly influence voter behaviour in the next elections. He said citizens’ perceptions of government performance on security would likely shape electoral choices.
According to him, insecurity has disrupted livelihoods, restricted movement, and weakened economic activity in several communities, all of which could affect voter sentiment.
Adeniran, however, expressed cautious optimism that improved security performance could restore public confidence ahead of the polls.
Data from Nigeria Watch further shows a troubling trend in violence-related deaths over the years, with figures rising and falling but remaining consistently high.
Between 2011 and 2026 (January–May), thousands of deaths were recorded annually, including 12,162 in 2025 and 5,272 in just the first five months of 2026.
The report also documented 222,137 deaths from violent incidents between 2006 and 2025, driven largely by insurgency, banditry, communal clashes, and security operations.
States such as Borno, Niger, Zamfara, Benue, and Katsina recorded some of the highest death tolls in 2025, reflecting the geographic concentration of insecurity.
Particularly alarming is the sharp rise in banditry-related deaths, which increased from 1,452 in 2024 to 3,974 in 2025, indicating an escalating rural security crisis.
Nigeria’s electoral history also shows a pattern of violence preceding major elections. From high-profile political assassinations in the early 2000s to bombings and attacks in the run-up to the 2011 and 2023 elections, insecurity has repeatedly intersected with democratic processes.
Ahead of the 2023 elections alone, INEC facilities were attacked 52 times across 29 states, resulting in the destruction of sensitive materials including ballot boxes, voting cubicles, generators, and thousands of permanent voter cards.
As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 general elections scheduled for January 16 and February 6, analysts warn that the coming months will be critical in determining not only electoral outcomes but also the credibility and safety of the entire democratic process.
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